Chapter 2 -"An Isolated, Targeted Attack"

"An Isolated, Targeted Attack" - a deeper look & analysis of the the Idaho 4 murders that occurred in Moscow, ID on 11/13/2022.

Economic Motivations to “Solve” the Murders?

Moscow, Idaho is a sleepy college town on the sparsely populated Palouse region of western Idaho. Moscow was settled in 1871 and incorporated as a town in 1887. The University of Idaho was founded a few years after incorporation in 1887 – with its inaugural class of students accepted in 1892. The town of Moscow has grown at a slow pace, without massive booms nor busts in population, gradually reaching its current population in 2023 of approx. 25,000 residents.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau this population data of the town of Moscow, ID does indeed include the student population of the University of Idaho. Thus, with a student population of approx. 11,500 students, the student population comprises approx. 45% of the total population of the town of Moscow. The University of Idaho comprises most of the town’s population, when adding the employees and support functions of the University.

In consideration of the total student enrollment & the University of Idaho employees, these approx. 50% of the town of Moscow’s total population have an obvious impact on the economy of the small, sleepy college town of Moscow. Therefore, when the University of Idaho ceased all in-person courses from November 13^th, 2022, until the start of the Spring Semester in January 2023, the local economy suffered immensely. Following the scheduled Thanksgiving break from classes, approx. 4,200 students did not return to campus in Moscow, ID until the start of the Spring Semester in January 2023.

As a result of the significant decrease in the student population for a period of 8-weeks in November 2022 through January 2023, the local economy of Moscow, ID experienced an immediate downturn in their business. This is directly a result of the brutal, and perhaps more importantly unsolved quadruple homicides. The student population of University of Idaho were for obvious reasons, apprehensive about returning to campus due to the apparent homicidal killer or killers remained on the loose. 

This atmosphere was untenable for the administrators of University of Idaho to permit to continue. The students were frightened for their safety, and the town’s local supporting economy had taken a 2^nd shutdown in 2 years, with the 1^st shutdown of their economy occurring during COVID-19 shutdown.

In 2020, all in-person courses for all University of Idaho students were shut down, and the local business also experienced associated COVID-19 related limitations on their respective businesses, resulting in millions of dollars in lost revenue to both the town & the university. Then, in December 2022 the quadruple homicide shutdown of the university and the town-generally, were having a slightly less, but equally devastating economic consequences for both entities.

Further, Idaho law enforcement authorities had not resolved this matter of the unsolved quadruple homicide of students in their slightly off campus home. As a result, the local economy of Moscow, as well as the University of Idaho, would experience deleterious effects to the revenue of each entity. Additionally, students and residents across the small town of Moscow feared for their safety when a homicidal maniac remained unknown & likely still amongst the local-sparsely populated region of Moscow, ID.

These circumstances would have created economic devastation for the University of Idaho. The lack of students on campus would have had severe economic consequences for the university. A comparative analysis between the reduced student population (approx. 4200 out of 11,500 students) in the wake of the quadruple homicide, with the economic impact of the COVID-19 shutdown to the university’s financial circumstances. During the COVID-19 the University of Idaho “lost $7 million when it closed down for the spring semester and anticipates it would lose double that if they closed down for the full year”.

This $7 million dollar loss was a result of the student population of University of Idaho all enrolled in online courses, as opposed to in-person/on campus courses. The $7 million represents a significant loss to the university’s pocket books at a time when the university was already enduring financial shortfalls. In 2019, the university had a $22 million dollar shortfall and to solve this shortfall the university terminated 150 employees, or approx. 6% of the university employees.

Thus, in December 2022 the University of Idaho was faced with the circumstances of approx. 4200 students, or 37% of the university’s student population, who decided not to return to campus due to concerns of their own safety, on account of the authorities’ failure to solve the heinous home-invasion, turned quadruple homicide.

Could the University of Idaho sustain such deleterious effects of 37% of their student enrollment refusing to return to campus, opting to remain in online learning instead?

The economic impact on the university would have been devastating if these 4200 students (and potentially more students in the future semesters) did not return to campus. In just the brief period of time in November and December 2022, according to the university’s own data, the university would have lost approx. $800k dollars. This is a significant loss to any organization, especially the University of Idaho who has had to terminate employees to resolve multi-million-dollar shortfalls in 2019, coupled with the $7 million dollar loss during the COVID-19 shutdown in 2020.

The economic impact on the university and the town of Moscow is exhibited by a study from 2018, where in 2018 the University of Idaho students generated $26.6 million dollars or the equivalent of producing 818 local jobs in Moscow.

Could the University of Idaho afford to sustain greater economic losses in 2022 & beyond?

It is important to consider that the University is essentially the town of Moscow, and the town of Moscow is essentially the University. The University of Idaho was founded at the onset of the town, and the town has existed to support the University, since 1892. This author asserts that this is an important factor to consider for numerous reasons. Notably, the deleterious economic effects sustained by the University of Idaho in the loss of millions of dollars, has a separate but equal deleterious economic effect on the town of Moscow.

This concept is further exhibited by an economic analysis of Cornell University, a small town, with a large university student population – the same economic environment in Moscow, ID & University of Idaho. In 2018, Cornell University spent “$732.2 million on day-to-day expenses related to facilities, supplies, and professional services”, and with “10,989 full-time and part-time faculty and staff”, which 78% “lived, shopped, and ate in and around Ithaca, NY”. The result of this economic activity produced by Cornell University on the town of Ithaca, NY was approximately $1.8 billion dollars in income to the regional economy in 2018.

In consideration of that analysis of Cornell University’s economic impact on the town of Ithaca, NY, the loss of revenue at the university has a multiplier effect in a negative manner on the local economy of the town of Ithaca. Thus, it is evident that in a similar economic environment in Moscow, ID, a symbiotic economic relationship exists between town and the University of Idaho.

Could this economic environment produce political circumstances in which to charge someone, anyone – even an innocent man, for these quadruple homicides in an effort to quell concerns of the general public & entice the online students to return to courses back on campus in Moscow?